マネー・ショート 華麗なる大逆転

The Big Short

本日ご紹介する映画は2015年アメリカ映画、『マネー・ショート 華麗なる大逆転』(原題: The Big Short)

2004年から2006年ごろのアメリカで脚光を浴びていた住宅ローン債権。住宅価格が上昇することで、高利回りとなったこの金融商品。多くの投資家たちが買いあさる中で、バブル崩壊の兆しをいち早く読み取った4人の投資家が、どのようにしてサブプライム住宅ローン危機の中で巨額の利益を上げたのかを描いています。

 

Some vocabulary to help you understand the movie. These are straight from our show notes;

Mortgage Loan: A loan from the bank, where if you don’t pay the loan the bank will own your house. So you use your house as collateral. Usually it is to purchase a house, but sometimes people will use to pay for something else.

Short Selling: The easiest way to explain it; making money from a stock or bond that is decreasing in value. It is a little complicated. What you and what we saw happen in the movie, is you borrow someones security (stock, bond, investment). For example, Stock A is $100 a stock. You borrow 100 shares of stock. You sell the 100 shares of stock for $10,000. You wait. Stock A drops to $50 a share, you buy 100 shares for $5,000. You return the borrowed shares and you keep $5,000.

Subprime Loan: First we need to talk about Prime Rate. The Prime Rate is the interest rate for good customers. It will be the best interest rate possible. The Subprime Loan is for people who don’t qualify for the Prime Rate, and it is a much higher rate.

Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): This is what Michael Burry looked into. It is a bond or other type of investment made from only mortgages. I think it was that first scene with Michael where he asked the new employee to look up the top 20 Mortgage Bonds, and all of the mortgages inside each one. An MBS is very similar to a CDO.

Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO): Is like a bond that includes, mortgages, loans and other bonds. Which is kind of what became the problem, not to jump ahead, but inside an MBS and CDO you have Tranches, different levels of quality. Think of this, a bank has 100 mortgages, they decide to put those 100 mortgages together and sell them as a bond. Inside that bond you have different levels of risk. The Bank looks and they say this 25% they will pay their mortgage, no doubt. They will get a AAA rating. These 25% they probably will pay their mortgage, so they receive a AA rating. Then these 25% it is going to be difficult for them to pay their mortgage so they receive a BBB rating. The final 25% not going to pay, we really don’t think they will pay, so they receive a BB rating. So the higher the rating, less risk, less interest. The problem is nobody wanted to buy the risky BBB and BB tranches, so they started hiding them inside AAA and AA rated CDO’s. The AAA CDO’s went from 90% AAA tranches to 90% BB Tranches.

Credit Default Swap (CDS): Usually a bank, like Hiroshima Ginko, they make mortgages. After they have enough mortgages they sell them to an investment bank like Mizuho, or Sumitomo Mitsui. The investment bank then pools the bonds together to make a bond, and they sell that to investors. When people pay their mortgage that money is payed to the bond buyer. After looking at those top 20 mortgage bonds he found people aren’t paying their mortgage. So he went to different investment banks, and said people aren’t going to pay their mortgage, they will default and these bonds are no good. So he asked them to create a Credit Default Swap, which meant he will pay the bank interest on the Bond, but when the bond fails, because no one is paying their mortgage, the bank has to pay him the full amount of the Bond.

Investment Fund: This is a pooling or grouping of peoples money together to invest. A mutual fund, a hedge fund, or an Exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Hedge Fund: The best way I can explain a Hedge Fund is, it is a special Mutual Fund. It is on a much larger scale, it is more expensive to enter than a mutual fund. Generally the Fund itself is made into a company.